Earlier in December, stocks took a 3 percent dip one day because the Federal Reserve implied that two rather than four interest rate reductions would be penciled in for the upcoming year.  This followed ten consecutive days of loss on the Dow, mostly through reshuffling between the Dow and Nasdaq. The Fed did reduce rates as widely expected, but the implied Fed hawkishness suggested more headwinds for the market to some, and the selloff accelerated in the afternoon. But the market rebounded in the days before Christmas and things look positive moving forward into 2025

The Federal Reserve's more hawkish strategy is based on the idea that inflation is still an issue, and there are enough positive market signs to carry the market upward, even if the reduced pace of interest rate lowering puts some damper on things. Yes, the signs are good. Indeed, market sentiment has been positive, with the deregulation implied in Trump's policies, good consumer demand, and a year with momentum going into 2025. On the other hand, the headlines tell me that Warren Buffett will enter 2025 with a very large cash position. Does the bard of Omaha know something we don't. If the market flutters, his reputation for sagacity will reach hagiographic proportions, if they arent there already.

I have been following the stock market on a daily or near-daily basis since I was about 9 somewhat lackadaisically and in concert with driving on Saturdays with my father to large rooms with tickers going across the wall in that remote era.  I was also tasked with picking up, every day about 1970 or so, the late city edition of the New York Post, which came out after 7, and had daily quotes, with particular attention to Canadian Export G&O which the family owned and always seemed to have a minus sign next to the daily result.  The stock had been recommended by a family friend. Familiarity with the market, does not necessarily mean I am a competent trader, though at times I have been prolific. There is a difference in understanding economics and being a good trader--probably related in some way to personality features such as compulsivity, impulsivity, and sensitivity to loss aversion. 

As one gets older, the issues of taxes become more germane, at least to me. Taxes are not particularly thrilling to think about, but protecting gains from taxes is important. It's very complicated, though, figuring out the relative benefits of funds with different tax strategies. Schwab does tax harvesting for free. Chat GPT should be a boon to those figuring out the relative risk and tax savings of various investment options. 

What will happen going forward? Most people are bullish, though one never knows....one Never knows. There will probably be an upward drift, not as dramatic as in 2024. Barrons recently had an issue with foreign investments, which will energize those less prominent markets. January may be a harbinger of the coming year- the so-called January effect. If the war in Ukraine ends- possibly with an agreement that freezes current military positions and addresses Ukraine's NATO involvement- the market may move higher.  However, for those in their senior years, a deliberate strategy may be best. My guess is a gain of 12 percent.